Novembro 28, 2021

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Mercados emergentes – declínio real do Brasil à medida que a inflação sobe, Latham FX cai

    * Brazil's real down 0.4% 
    * Petrobras slips after Monday's surge
    * Strong Q3, buyback lift EDP Energias do Brasil 

 (Adds details, updates prices)
    By Susan Mathew and Ambar Warrick
    Oct 26 (Reuters) - Brazil's real fell on Tuesday as rising
inflation fed concerns that the continuation of aggressive
monetary policy tightening might choke economic growth, while
most other Latin American currencies edged lower against a
steady dollar. 
    The real slipped 0.4% as data showed Brazil's
inflation rose more than expected in the month to mid-October,
driven by higher fuel and electricity prices - the fastest
monthly pace of increase for prices since February 2016.

    "(The data) increases the likelihood of (Brazil's monetary
policy committee) Copom accelerating the hiking pace tomorrow,"
said strategists at Citi. According to a Reuters poll last week,
the benchmark Selic rate is expected to be raised by 100 basis
points on Wednesday.
    Positive tax revenue data for September helped the real
recoup some of the day's losses. But the currency had plummeted
to a six-month low recently on fears of the government breaching
its spending cap.
    Economists at Latin America's largest bank Itau Unibanco
warned on Monday that Brazil's economy is likely to shrink next
year as the central bank hikes interest rates amid concerns over
more government spending.
    "In view of the presidential elections next year, it seems
very unlikely that ... Bolsonaro will tighten the fiscal policy
belt. ... As a result, the BRL is likely to remain amongst the
underperformers of the emerging market currencies," said You Na
Park-Heger, an FX and EM analyst at Commerzbank. 
    Peru's sol fell 0.4%, extending losses to a fourth
straight session. Peru's opposition-led Congress pushed back a
confirmation vote on the country's new Cabinet until next
Thursday, in order to mourn the death of a lawmaker who suddenly
passed away on Monday.
    Colombia's peso fell 0.1%, while Chile's currency
 added 0.4%. Fitch Ratings said Colombia and Chile should
adopt additional measures to tighten fiscal deficits as their
debts are likely to remain high with increasing political
uncertainty.
    Most other Latam currencies retreated slightly, as the
dollar kept to a tight range ahead of several major central bank
meetings. 
    After rising 2.3% to post its best day in more than two
months on Monday, Brazil's Bovespa stock index fell 1.7%
with banks leading losses. 
    Petrobras slipped 0.4% after surging almost 7% on
Monday when Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro reiterated that
he is considering privatizing the state-run oil
company.  
    Energy company EDP Energias do Brasil jumped 2.9%
after reporting a 70% jump in quarterly earnings from a year ago
and approved a share buyback.
    
    Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:
    
                              Latest        Daily % change
 MSCI Emerging Markets         1296.79                   -0.04
                                        
 MSCI LatAm                    2188.01                   -0.48
                                        
 Brazil Bovespa              106831.32                   -1.73
                                        
 Mexico IPC                   51981.05                    0.28
                                        
 Chile IPSA                    4242.75                     1.6
                                        
 Argentina MerVal             89200.16                  -0.214
                                        
 Colombia COLCAP               1411.15                    0.65 Currencies             Latest        Daily % change
 Brazil real                    5.5713                   -0.35
                                        
 Mexico peso                   20.2010                   -0.24
                                        
 Chile peso                      804.5                    0.36
                                        
 Colombia peso                 3769.03                   -0.12
 Peru sol                       3.9828                   -0.43
                                        
 Argentina peso                99.5400                   -0.05
 (interbank)                            
                                        
 
 (Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan
Oatis)